PART 2 – STATISTICS + AGENTS’ AND PROFESSIONALS’ OPINIONS
This is our 29th Market Report, with the previous one being in August 2021. Read Part 1 in full here along with hundreds of other articles and information pieces.
STATISTICS
As usual, we have kept a record of the average difference between Asking Price and Actual Selling price, where we have been supplied with that information from reliable sources.
We have combined the valuation records for the last 6 months of 2021, so that we can compare them to those of the two previous half years.
Average Difference Between Asking Price and Actual Selling Price.
Last two Quarters of 2020
July to December – 8.94% – Ranging from -1.87% for an apartment in Casares, to -18.92% for a flooded finca that had been empty for a year.
First 2 Quarters of 2021
January to June – 10.80% – Ranging from -3.35% for a S/D Villa in Tarragona, to -26.72% for a remodelled villa with problems in Marbella.
2nd 2 Quarters of 2021
July to December – 10.44% – The smallest was two of 0.00%. Both were in the last quarter, paying the asking price for two very different properties. A villa in Marbella priced at nearly 9M€ euro, and the other at less than 200,000€ euro for a townhouse in a small pueblo in Granada. The largest difference was -18.6% for a country villa in Marbella, with problems obtaining an amendment to an existing AFO.
As with the first half of the year, the 6 months does cover a wide range of market conditions and influences, principally due to Covid travel restrictions and relaxations. The 3rd quarter figures were -11.49% and the 4th quarter -9.39%, which is not much of a difference, but the highest and lowest were in the last quarter, with paying the asking price being recorded for the first time.
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Changes in Multi-Listing Site – Resales Online
We found on 12th January 2022 that there were 18,130 properties of 100,000€ euro or more, which is a significant drop of 13.38% from the 20,930 in August, which was almost the same drop as the 13.33% from the 24,150 properties found in January 2021. This January is 25% less than a year ago. This provides continuing confirmation of the likelihood of shortages of some property.
2,583 (14.25%) of these properties are found to have a discount of 10% or more since first listing, which continues the drop from the three previous records of 15.84%, 17.6% and 17.22%.
Evidence of greater confidence in the market is found in the 1,261 (6.96%) that increased their price since first listing, higher than the 6.52% for the previous 6 months, and well above the 5.8% registered for the last 6 months of 2020.
As with the last report, it’s further evidence of increased demand, which will see prices rising unless supply increases.
AGENTS’ AND PROFESSIONALS’ OPINIONS
We’ve selected a spread of professionals for opinion, and not solely Estate Agents.
Valuer – General Western Costa del Sol
Asking prices for resales are more realistic, with fewer erratically high ones. Prices have not rocketed, but are generally increasing, perhaps being lifted by comparison to much higher new build/off-plan prices.
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Finance Consultant – General throughout the Costas.
Most clients are from the UK, and they are extremely busy. There are fewer at the less than 500,000€ euro level, but substantially more to the multi-million level. The profile of the enquirers has changed, with a substantial increase of those under 50 who have sold a business or obtained a substantial sum. They come to Spain for lifestyle change, fed up with the regulation and attitude in the UK. Not necessarily looking to work here (though at that age they almost certainly will dabble in other things due to boredom and seeking challenges). Generally, they are not having problems in finding suitable properties, though, with the money they have available, they are looking for a place suited to them, mostly new build or substantially renovated if older.
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Architect – Sotogrande
Best year since 2008. The area is seeing serious, long-term investment, exampled by the ‘San Roque Golf Club’ purchase by investors, who are renovating, improving and building new within it.
More developments are underway in Alcaidesa and are understood to be selling well.
Many Madrid owners are heading South, buying plots for development and older properties to remodel.
It will have the additional benefit to local businesses of bringing more year round activity to the area.
The apparently likely prospects of Gibraltar being incorporated into the EU Schengen area, will also be a major boost to the whole Campo de Gibraltar.
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News Report – Sotogrande
Christian A Rockefeller has also bought land on the NW of Sotogrande, for a new ‘prime global residence and hospitality development’, to be named, “The Christian A. Rockefeller Residences and Golf Club Sotogrande,” comprising a 200 ha, luxury golf, 5* boutique hotel and villa development, all design by Italian architects.
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Project Manager – Manilva
They are really busy, with projects all over Spain. The interest is very much from the upper end of the market, with clients knowing what they want, fed up with Covid and looking for better quality of life.
However, they have difficulties with over optimistic architect design, and building costs are rising substantially due to scarcity and transport difficulties.
Agent – Estepona, Benahavis
The houses in the Estepona/ Benahavis area are flying. It was a bumper year, only selling in this area.
If they set up 5 houses to be viewed a week before somebody arrived, generally only 2 would be left available when they are here to view.
Covid travel restrictions have also scuppered a few sales. An Austrian client was due to come over to view and close on a property if they were happy with it. They were then locked down, didn’t want to commit unseen, and the sale is gone. We don’t expect it to still be available for the buyer’s delayed arrival.
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Architects – Marbella
- Generally, how is the market? Buoyant
- Who is selling –
- shortage or surplus of property on the market? Lack of cheap properties for workers, renting has now become very expensive.
- Property types?
- Resale – lots of people selling up cheaply if they are from the UK. Plenty of people looking and buying resale.
- New – Lots of new build recently completed after the delays resulting from COVID.Under Construction – Lots of developments now on site after the delays resulting from COVID.
- Who is buying –
- Few or competing? – seems as though buyers are searching for bargains, but still end up paying the going rate.
- Nationalities? – Northern European. UK are still buying now they realise they can still own a property here after BREXIT. Also, the Golden Visa is quite attractive to UK clients who can work from home.
- Property types?- High end luxury villas
- Reason for buying? – Permanent Home/Holiday Home/Buy to Rent Investment? – lots of people like the idea of moving permanently to Spain due to the COVID influence, but in reality, it’s not that easy.
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Magazine Publisher – Marbella
They can see activity due to the level of advertising. It’s been going really well for the last half year, especially in the 2.5M+€ euro villas, and there doesn’t appear to be any reason for it to slow down.
Buyers appear to be younger, with many involved in digital and crypto businesses and investment. They are buying lifestyle. A property here is seen as a good investment, giving them a safer, more outdoor life. The market has definitely moved towards the seller, as there is a shortage of quality property.
The success of developments has an adverse effect upon advertising, as the quick sale makes the developer confident it will all go and so stops adverts. A couple of developments have done that, whereas previously the magazine could have expected another year perhaps of advertising. However, new ones are coming in all the time.
Mirroring building contractor’s difficulties with rising costs and scarcity of material, their difficulty at present is securing supplies of quality paper, with prices quoted when the rolls leaving the factory and then rising until the product is delivered to their printer.
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Building Consultant – East of Marbella
Sales are starting to go up, especially after the Covid lock downs, with people more anxious to buy. During the lockdown and Covid restrictions, prices haven’t gone down, as I could have been expected, perhaps due to more buyers and sellers knowing that the Covid situation was temporary.
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Agent – Western Costa del Sol
Based in Mijas, they work from Sotogrande to Málaga City. It’s been a very buoyant 8 months, but they feel it’s a little unpredictable. They are beginning to run out of quality property and the stock of potential new listings is depleted. They are concerned that in 18+ months a bubble will grow due to the customary greed and ‘graph always going upwards’ attitude.
Buyers are from all over, UK, Nordic, Spanish, US, Canada, Polish (remarkably buoyant), German, Belgian, etc. Brexit has been a disaster for the Brits, with the 3 month Schengen restriction forcing some to sell. However, those with just holiday homes are not too concerned as they are unlikely to be here for 3 months in any six anyway, so they are not selling.
The demand has been for luxury villas of 500,000+€ euro, and there the competition from the more attractive Golden Visa offer from Portugal, is definitely winning potential buyers instead of them coming to Spain.
New developments are selling, mainly through direct sale by the developers’ teams. Developers are not buying so many potential sites, preferring to spend on the sites they have and build those out, before speculating again, which goes back to other concern of a medium term bubble. It also shows that they or their financiers, have learnt from the last time.
Málaga City has been hit by Covid restrictions, but there is strong demand for property in the older centre.
Larger properties in Zagaleta, Benahavís and Sierra Blanca, Marbella, above 5M€ euro, are selling so well that there are few quality or remodelable properties available.
Agent – Nerja and Málaga
The market is going very well, with last year strong and many enquiries indicating interest for the future. Almost all the new builds have been sold and there is difficulty in finding resale property to offer. There is a mix of sellers, with some Brits leaving. Nordic demand is strong, for upmarket property and many intending to stay here. Prices of villas and apartments are increasing due to the lack of supply. New properties are not giving price discounts and there is less than before on resales.
Much of the overall demand is holidays and letting, but a reasonable percentage intend to stay here.
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Valuer – Almería and Murcia
Here things are buoyant, despite Brexit and Covid! Prices are rising, albeit modestly and the difference between ‘asking’ and ‘achieving’ are also modest. Buyers are coming from all over Europe and the interest from Madrid buyers is noticeable, particularly at the middle to higher end (people considering relocating, to work from home and with some outside space, rather than living in an apartment). No reason why this situation should not continue within the near future.
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Architect and Valuer – Costa Blanca North and Balearics
The last quarter of 2021 was very good for the real estate market in Valencia, Alicante and the Balearic Islands. A good summer and good perspectives to the end of the year regarding the health situation supported the sensation of a “rebirth”.
All types of properties have been sold. Again, properties with terraces, gardens and plots have been the preferred. New developments in cities have visibly included open areas, such as terraces and big balconies, to meet the demand. In the cities of Valencia, Castellón and Alicante, a number of new developments creating new neighbourhoods, have been progressed or finalised.
In the cities, towns and urbanisations, the buyers are in the majority foreigners, not only from European countries, but more and more from America, the Far and Middle East. Those who buy in the cities are looking mostly for investments in short or long term rentals. Spanish citizens are mostly looking to settle out of the city, adding demand to areas of detached houses and villas, which were traditional markets of second residences for European citizens.
Asking prices have been rising since the easing of the health restrictions in summer, but a discount of 5% to 10% is usual to set the final price.
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Building Surveyor and Valuer – Balearics
Mallorca – The Germans are piling in again, looking for top end, quality property. The lower markets are largely stagnant, though there are still some UK retirees looking for apartments at around 250,000€ euro. They are matched by similar older ones going back to the UK.
Ibiza is crazy with big money sales. Menorca appears to have little activity.
Generally, there is not enough stock. Developers are offering at sky high prices and uncertain marketing specification, but after months of few sales, then drop them, one by as much as 30% when the optimistic specification was reduced. They then sold quickly.
Non-EU citizens are finding delays in purchases in areas where the military permission is still required, which gives the EU citizen an advantage in enabling a rapid, less complicated sale.
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Building Surveyor and Valuer – Tenerife
Generally, the market is very strong in the south of Tenerife, with the Christmas and New Year period seeing many property sales. As always, well located, sensibly priced, nicely presented apartments usually sell well and quickly, but there have been sales of large, detached properties too. Estate Agents complain that they don’t have enough properties on their books to keep up with demand, especially one and two bed properties.
The British are still in the market to buy, but increasing numbers have been noted placing their properties on the market for sale in response to continuing complications relating to travel in light of Brexit, Covid tests, and paperwork. The three months in every six months restriction has had an impact on many. The property market here does not solely rely upon British buying, as many different nationalities are investing.
There seems to be a little bit of wriggle room between asking and selling prices, more for larger properties than smaller ones. Large and expensive detached villas, unless they have something special to offer, can stay on the market for long periods of time, gathering more calima dust than offers of purchase.
There is still very little in the way of construction of new residential and holiday complexes in the south of Tenerife, but when there are developments, they are usually quickly sold off plan. An area which is starting to “heat up” is the San Miguel de Abona Coast, encompassing San Blas, Golf del Sur and Amarilla Golf. There are a series of improvements to the coastal path, new connections with the motorway and other new road connections as well as the proposal for the construction of a new beach. Hotel chains such as Barceló have already started buying into the Area, so expect prices to continue to climb in these areas.
Contributors
Thank you all for giving your time and thoughts – in alphabetical order –
Spanish Property Insight – Newsletter
Survey Spain Building Surveyor – Mijas
Survey Spain Valuer – Almería
Survey Spain Valuer – Costa del Sol
Survey Spain Valuer – Tenerife
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