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Quarterly Market Report – 9th January 2015

By January 14, 2015 No Comments

Survey SpainThis is our fourth quarterly Report. We have kept it brief and specifically relevant to the locations where we are aware that the banks we act for have interests in properties as security for loans.

As part of the research we have identified a number of wider and national property comments that may be of interest and provide links to these.

Survey Spain Network is recording prices and valuations throughout our Network. Although a limited number of properties and still small for a useful statistical analysis, we provide some headline information below.

  • Discount from Asking Price to Sale Price
    • Over all the locations, which are all the Costas from the Portuguese to the French borders, plus the Islands,
    • From March to December 2014 the average discount of sale price to asking price was 14.41%
    • During the period of March to September it was 15.37%
    • The last quarter from October to December it was 10.93%.
    • In Málaga province it was 11.45%.
    • We have insufficient information to provide a meaningful % for other individual provinces.

We consider that the reduction in discount is confirmation of the opinion that the increase in demand is resulting in sellers not requiring to discount their property by such a large amount.

It could also be proof that sellers are being more realistic with their asking prices, perhaps as they see neighbouring properties being sold.

  • Value per sq m
    • There is a substantial range over the whole area.
      • The highest is an apartment in Puerto Banús sold at just less than 9,500€ euro per sq m.
      • The lowest is a country finca in Almería at less than 600€ euro per sq m.
      • Average value per sq m in various Provinces for the period from March to September 2014 compared to October to December 2014. (We have excluded the Provinces where there is insufficient evidence to be statistically accurate.)
        • Cádiz: 2,069€ euro per sq m – 2,013€ euro per sq m
        • Málaga: 2,204€ euro per sq m – 2,302€ euro per sq m
        • Almería and Murcia: 1,432€ euro per sq m – 1,416€ euro per sq m
        • Alicante: 1,469€ euro per sq m – 1,422€ euro per sq m
        • Baleárics: 2,619€ euro per sq m – insufficient information.
  • Based on the above, we are of the opinion that it shows marginal decreases in value in most areas, with the exception of Málaga where there is a marginal increase. We consider this as evidence that the steady fall in values that we have seen over the last 7+ years is gradually coming to an end.
  • The Local Market in individual Municipalities.
    (Note that the rates per square metre may be averaged from a small number of properties in some cases.)
  • San Roque and La Linea, including Sotogrande.
    • Sotogrande as an estate has been created by sale of individual plots and development areas by an overall landowner, who retained responsibility for infrastructure and development planning.
    • Towards the end of this year, the remainder of the estate was sold to two American private equity funds at a price understood to be in the region of 225 million € euro.
    • It is hoped and expected that this will result in an increase in investment in the area with the result of consolidating values of individual properties.
    • As with many other areas of the Costas of Spain, Sotogrande is seeing an increase in the remodelling and refurbishing of properties.
      • This may be due to owners deciding they cannot sell the property at a ‘reasonable’ price, but they see that the market is improving and so they are prepared to invest in the property’s maintenance and improvement.
      • Alternatively, it can be that buyers have been able to acquire the property at a sufficiently low price that they can justify its acquisition with the intention to modernise and bring it to their own particular style, in confidence that improving market will make it economically worthwhile. This can also extend to complete demolition and new build on uniquely locationally attractive sites.
      • Rate per square metre – 2,186€ euro per sq m
  • Manilva
    • No significant change from previous report.
  • Estepona
    • Estepona is part of the ‘Golden Triangle’ of Marbella, Benahavis and Estepona.
    • Whilst Estepona is financially in a very poor situation, it continues to promote itself strongly for tourism, with a range of small investments increasing its attraction.
    • There has been increasing number of sales particularly of larger properties, although there is still a substantial number available.
    • Rate per square metre – 1,589€ euro per sq m
  • Benahavis
    • Unlike Estepona, Benahavis is one of the few town halls in Spain to be in profit, which results in their providing increasing benefits to individual occupiers and their families. This in turn increases the attractiveness of the municipality as a location.
    • La Zagaleta is the ‘star’ location on Costa del Sol and it has seen a significant number of sales. However, these appear to be as a result of owners finally deciding that they have to sell and buyers convinced that the market is not going to sink any further. Again, there are still a substantial number of properties available.
    • Rate per square metre – 2,707€ euro per sq m
  • Marbella
    • The rate per square metre is biased to a certain extent by a few large properties, but it does show that these are the properties that are selling.
    • Rate per square metre – 3,373€ euro per sq m
  • Mijas and Fuengirola
    • Remains popular with a wide range of property values depending upon location.
    • Rate per square metre – 1,682€ euro per sq m
  • Benalmádena
    • Benefiting from being relatively close to the airport and Malaga city with many attractions for tourists and semi-permanent residents.
    • Again there is a wide range of property values due to it including attractive hillside locations, but also poorer, crowded, short-term tourist locations with significant social detractions.
    • Rate per square metre – 1,356€ euro per sq m
  • Costa Blanca and Murcia
    • These areas are seeing a similar increase in interest and sales with some of the more attractive areas such as Moraira and Javea seeing a slight ‘bounce’ in values.
    • As everywhere, these are only with the best properties and there is still a substantial amount of property overhanging the market in many areas.
    • As from our next report we will have a more detailed comment on the individual market in the particular municipalities in this region.
    • Rate per square metre – See above.

COMMENT

  • Over the last few years there has been a substantial increase in demand from Russia and Eastern Europe, which has generally lifted the market. Now there is some uncertainty at the effect the troubles of Russia are likely to have on demand from that country.
    • There is evidence of sales falling through, with substantial deposits being lost by the potential buyer due to that buyer’s concern that their euros remain ‘liquid’ in case of substantial loss of assets within their own country.
    • Alternatively, it could increase demand as Russians and other Eastern Europeans with significant assets become more concerned and seek safe havens for their assets and the ability to acquire European residence rights.
    • The fall in value of the euro is making property in Spain appear increasingly less expensive for purchasers based in other currencies, such as the pound, kroner and dollar.
    • Generally, there is still optimism in the market although political uncertainties in other areas, such as the major UK market with its general election coming in May, will have some slowing effect.
    • There are also elections pending in Spain and this is seeing town halls spending on infrastructure and public relations to emphasise to their population as to what a good job they are doing.
    • On the other side, there is considerable concern throughout the country at the increasing evidence of political corruption, with the population in general appearing to be coming to the opinion that ‘enough is enough’. This attitude is making the result of the elections, both locally and nationally, very uncertain.
    • Very regretfully, there have also been some demolitions of illegal properties in the Almería area, which have been family homes for a substantial number of years. Whilst legally it is the correct action, their apparent lack of compassion and imaginative alternative answers is very poor publicity for the Spanish property market abroad.
    • Kyero is a substantial multi-listing property site, which appears to be responsibly run.
      • They publish a quarterly house asking price index and commenting on their 4th Quarter of 2014 issue they state,

On the face of it, Q4 2014 saw average asking prices drop back to their Q1 2014 levels.  The modest gains we saw this year seem to have disappeared. http://news.kyero.com/2015/01/kyero-q4-2014-house-price-index-issue-67/19267

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